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A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.

That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."

New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.

Lack of Serious Debate

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the book, no writer supports unification or the status quo. They composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.

Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the other's positions."

Call for Broader Debate

Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."